SWODY1
SPC AC 220043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN TN VALLEY/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS
THE OZARKS INTO THE NRN TN VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ALSO QUITE STEEP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN PLAINS
WHERE THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OKC HAS A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 9.3 C/KM.
THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
...SRN AND CNTRL AZ/SE NM...
TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN AZ...ONE NE OF PHOENIX
AND ONE SW OF TUCSON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED MAINLY FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM SWD ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN HALF OF AZ. THIS
COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 9.5 TO 10 C/KM
EVIDENT ON THE 00Z TUCSON AND FLAGSTAFF SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS.
..BROYLES.. 08/22/2010
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