SWODY1
SPC AC 270055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN STATES...
NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS REMAIN WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION FROM SRN
CA...WRN AND SRN AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYERS WITH 40+ F TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
A RISK OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES THROUGH MID
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING.
...ID THROUGH WRN MT...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN ID SWWD INTO S-CNTRL OREGON. HIGH
BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE FRONT FROM ID INTO WRN MT
WITHIN NWD EXTENSION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND WITHIN THE
ZONE OF INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOI 00Z RAOB INDICATES A VERY DEEP INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 500 MB...BUT WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-45 KT
SWLY MEAN FLOW AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OR
DRY MICROBURSTS AS CONVECTION MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 200 J/KG
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE UPDRAFTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
LIFT A SUFFICIENT MASS OF PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYERS IN ORDER TO SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST DOWNBURST THREAT.
..DIAL.. 08/27/2010
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