SWODY1
SPC AC 200053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0753 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
SATELLITE INDICATES LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS BROADER
REGIME...THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE COMPOSED OF TWO DISTINCT
IMPULSES...ONE OVER CNTRL CO...ANOTHER NEAR CNTRL NE.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM EASTERN MT
INTO ND. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL SD WILL DEEPEN
WHILE DEVELOPING QUITE SLOWLY EWD/NEWD. A LEE OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN FROM THIS LOW SWWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL
NEB TO THE CO/KS BORDER. ELSEWHERE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM
ERN MT SEWD TO THE SD SURFACE LOW.
TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR E OF SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL
DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO KS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO SW MN. ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD FROM
SWRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE ERIE WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
...CO...
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN CO IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A
ZONE OF CONCENTRATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. EXPECT POCKETS
OF MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/K...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
..15_OWS.. 08/20/2010
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