Tuesday, August 31, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010100
SWODY1
SPC AC 010058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD
OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRIMARILY FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL WI TO IA...INTO
NORTHERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NORTHERN KS. 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLE A
NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J
PER KG MLCAPE ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN KS/ EARLY THIS
EVENING ON THE FRINGE OF RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS EVENING...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH A DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY CONGEAL AND FORWARD PROPAGATE EASTWARD. SOMEWHAT MORE
DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A SEVERE HAIL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/ADJACENT LOWER-MID MO VALLEY VICINITY.

FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
OK/NORTHWEST TX...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WANE IN
INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/CINH
INCREASES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY DOWNBURSTS DIMINISHING
ACCORDINGLY.

..GUYER.. 09/01/2010

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