SWODY1
SPC AC 290058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AZ...
AHEAD OF THE A DIGGING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT MAINLY THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ. THE 00Z TUCSON OBSERVED RAOB REFLECTED
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG /30-40 KT/ HIGH
LEVEL FLOW NOTED AROUND 8 KM AND ABOVE.
...NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE/ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WY AND EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS THE
REGION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS GIVEN STRONG FLOW/STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK/DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SUCH A
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE BASED ON THE 00Z
NEW ORLEANS OBSERVED RAOB/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP TRENDS AND LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE.
..GUYER.. 08/29/2010
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