SWODY2
SPC AC 270523
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LARGE- SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
REGIME...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PERHAPS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR A
STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BENEATH VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE PLATEAU REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL IN SOME
QUESTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE SALT LAKE
VALLEY INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...AS COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU. BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER THE ONSET OF DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING
SATURDAY EVENING.
..KERR.. 08/27/2010
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