SWODY2
SPC AC 261707
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN
PLAINS WSWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY PEAK HEATING TIME ON FRIDAY.
WHILE A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...MOIST TROPICAL PLUME IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...SWRN STATES NEWD THROUGH GREAT BASIN AND INTO WY...
GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF STORMS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS UT AND AZ WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MORE MOIST. AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1000
J/KG...THOUGH A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SRN/WRN AZ WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND
SUPPORT MOSTLY SLOW MOVING STORM CLUSTERS. WHILE RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MOIST FRIDAY THAN
TODAY...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...SERN US...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE DUE TO
CONVECTION/CONVERGENCE LOCATED IN THE NRN GULF. WHILE A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF WEAKENING BOUNDARY...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WHILE INLAND STORMS WILL BE WITHIN A WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A MICROBURST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND A VERY WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WEAK
FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY ON THE NUMBER OF STORMS PRECLUDES SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..IMY.. 08/26/2010
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