SWODY3
SPC AC 190722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE EWD AS A POSITIVE-TILT ENTITY
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TO
THE W...A NEW UPPER TROUGH WILL EDGE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
...OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE S AND SE FROM THE MS VLY/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE DEAMPLIFYING NATURE TO THE
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING ASCENT/WIND FIELDS AND LESSEN THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. MOREOVER... SURGE OF TROPICAL
AIR NWD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...PARTICULARLY
FROM THE MS RVR NEWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AMIDST ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KTS OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW. CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL THRIVE
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY BUT EQUALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
MUCH DEEPER/HOTTER AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF AR INTO N TX/SRN OK.
..RACY.. 08/19/2010
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