SWOD48
SPC AC 270857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN...EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
TUESDAY...WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATELY
LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR APPEARS POSSIBLE. BUT IT
STILL NOT YET CLEAR THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. AND THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS/MODEL RUNS BECOMES QUITE
LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS...WITH THE UNCERTAIN
INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...EARL...NEAR/EAST OF NORTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS ANOTHER POSSIBLE COMPLICATING FACTOR.
..KERR.. 08/27/2010
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