MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1532

ACUS11 KWNS 012149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012149
SDZ000-NEZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN SD...N CENTRAL AND WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012149Z - 012315Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN SD AND N-CENTRAL/WRN
NEB. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21Z INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDING OVER
N-CENTRAL SD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SSW ACROSS CENTRAL
SD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NEB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FRONT
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S F...AIDING IN STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND DECREASING CINH...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING
INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD DEPICTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...MINOR UPPER IMPULSE IS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY
LIFTING NWD OUT OF ERN CO...AND THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
UPPER SUPPORT FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR STORM INITIATION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE INDICATE MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C
PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S F...ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. AREA VWP
DATA OVER NEB AND SD SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES OVERLAYED
BY 20-30 KT MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW...AND THESE WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHEAR PROFILES...IN
ADDITION TO THE SOMEWHAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY...AND HOT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
FAVOR A FEW SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 08/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42800340 44040161 45320024 44889811 42979849 41700051
41620315 42800340

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