SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012337
NDZ000-MTZ000-020130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-NERN MT...ND.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...
VALID 012337Z - 020130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559
CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WW. SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED BUT
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF ANY
OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER CENTRAL ND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR EXPANDED WW SE OF CURRENT
COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING
1. OLDER BOUNDARY FROM NWRN MN WSWWD ACROSS NELSON COUNTY ND...NWWD
TO BOTTINEAU COUNTY. AIR MASS TO ITS N HAS HEATED/DESTABILIZED
SOMEWHAT...AND MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR TSTMS ON N
SIDE...DESPITE TSTMS JUST N OF CANADIAN BORDER THAT HAVE WEAKENED
UPON MOVING INTO THIS AIR MASS. BOUNDARY HAS GONE
QUASISTATIONARY...AND MAY RETREAT NWD FROM ABOUT NELSON COUNTY WWD
BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY...
2. FRESHER AND RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM
CANADIAN CONVECTION ACROSS BOTTINEAU/RENVILLE COUNTIES...MOVING SWD
TOWARD MOT. THIS BOUNDARY IS OVERTAKEN BY...
3. BROADER BOUNDARY SPREADING SEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS WRN ND AND
DECELERATING SWD OVER WRN MT...ANALYZED OVER
RENVILLE/MOUNTRAIL/MCKENZIE COUNTIES ND AND DAWSON/MCCONE COUNTIES
MT TO NEAR GGW.
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES...WITH CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG THEIR INTERSECTIONS
OVER CENTRAL/NRN ND. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS ENTIRE REGION WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH SFC WINDS RELATIVELY BACKED IN WARM SECTOR
AND N SIDE OF ERN BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 60-70 KT ARE
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN ND...JUXTAPOSED WITH AXIS OF UPPER 60S/70S
F SFC DEW POINTS JUST E OF MO RIVER SUPPORTING MLCAPE 2000-3000
J/KG. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION INCREASING OVER CENTRAL MT MAY
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH WLY SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS. RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR
POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOLS WITH STG-SVR GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL ALSO IS
POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF MT/WRN ND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46190878 46600959 47940999 48990959 49000397 48989949
48999814 47629826 46699980 46250447 46100805 46190878
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