SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022055
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-022200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB AND WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022055Z - 022200Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN
IA.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE TWO PROMINENT
E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARIES OVER NEB INTO IA/NRN MO. AT 20Z...THE SRN
MOST BOUNDARY /THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT/...EXTENDED EWD FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER /VICINITY OF HARLAN
COUNTY NEB/ THROUGH FAR SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NWD TODAY AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS FROM
KS INTO SRN NEB. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM S OF KDSM
WWD INTO ERN NEB BETWEEN KOMA-KLNK TO WNW OF KEAR. DESPITE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING SBCINH HAS BEEN ELIMINATED FROM NRN KS
NWD TO THE E-W NEB OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CHARACTER OF CU FIELD ALONG
AND N OF THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY SUGGESTS INHIBITION AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE CONTINUING TO LIMIT DEEPER CU/TCU FROM
FORMING.
RUC APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS ABOUT 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED VALUES/ WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE
ELIMINATION OF THE SBCINH PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S WILL BE
NEEDED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY BE TAKING PLACE AT
THIS TIME VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT IN SERN NEB /THAYER AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES/ WHERE CU IS FORMING AS OF 2030Z. TRENDS IN THE
WRF-HRRR HAVE BEEN FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT /22-23Z/ OVER EN NEB WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/ SPREADING EWD. GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 3000-4000 J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40
KT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS SINCE WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 08/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40219866 40299922 41209903 41639797 41699548 41659435
40749421 40289598 40219866
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