MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1615

ACUS11 KWNS 082104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082103
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-082200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS / SWRN NEB / FAR E-CNTRL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082103Z - 082200Z

ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN
KS - SERN CO EXTENDING NEWD INTO PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY POSE AT LEAST SOME MICROBURST POTENTIAL
AND A CORRESPONDING STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.

RECENT MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SWRN KS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN FOCUSING TSTM INITIATION WHERE
TEMPS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 100S
DEG F. IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...CONTINUED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO LOCALLY ERODE THE ALREADY WEAKENED CAP
AND LEAD TO INITIALLY ISOLD TSTMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
AND WITHIN PRE-EXISTING CU FIELD.

LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK CLOUD BEARING SHEAR
/20-30 KTS H5 FLOW/ WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF WRN KS AND ADJACENT E-CNTRL CO. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING RATHER HIGH SEVERE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL /DCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ OVER WRN KS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...AT LEAST ISOLD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FARTHER N OVER SWRN NEB. HERE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT YIELDING HIGHER
CAPE AND STRONGER SWLY UPPER FLOW WOULD IN TURN SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION THAT WOULD INCLUDE LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38050202 38140062 39389866 40659870 41149988 41130066
40370183 39620248 38430249 38050202

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