MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1617

ACUS11 KWNS 082247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082247
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...ERN NEB...SRN MN...WRN IA...NCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082247Z - 082345Z

SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS NERN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD AT
2230Z. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUB-SYNOPTIC
CIRCULATION AND THE MCV SHOULD TRACK EWD TOWARD NWRN IA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. PREFERENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS INTO 3000+ J/KG MLCAPES AND
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP S
OF THE WATCHES INTO ECNTRL NEB WITH TIME THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NRN PARTS OF
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NWRN IA AND EXTREME
SRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING...ALONG PERIPHERY OF EXTREME INSTABILITY.

A SEPARATE WEATHER REGIME MAY YIELD A LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS
DEVELOPING NWD FROM CNTRL KS TOWARD SCNTRL NEB. HERE...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLCAPES OF
2000+ J/KG WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AS A RESULT OF STORMS POSSIBLY BLEEDING OUT OF THE CURRENT WW/S INTO
ECNTRL NEB AND EVOLVING NWD OUT OF NCNTRL KS...A NEW WW OR LOCAL
EXTENSIONS MAY BE REQUIRED IN ERN NEB/WRN IA AND/OR CNTRL KS.

..RACY.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...
DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 43199916 44319323 42639322 41439497 40779662 39859762
38829825 38169888 38440025 39480013 41449955 41659951
43199916

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