SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102208
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI...SERN MN...NERN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598...
VALID 102208Z - 102315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 598 CONTINUES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE TAIL-END OF AN EJECTING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS
ECNTRL/SCNTRL MN AND NCNTRL IA AT 22Z. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE SRN END OF THE BAND OVER NCNTRL IA AMIDST MLCAPES OF
3000-4000 J/KG.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY
SPREAD E OF THE TORNADO WATCH INTO WRN WI...SERN MN AND NERN IA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXISTING CUMULUS FIELD DOWNSTREAM AND
THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE ONLY A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILE...WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY WILL NOT INCREASE
APPRECIABLY DOWNSTREAM. NONETHELESS...AS EXISTING STORMS HEAD
TOWARD THE MS RIVER...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..RACY.. 08/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42579338 45539255 45449097 42659138 42579338
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