SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122237
NEZ000-KSZ000-130030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS TO SCNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122237Z - 130030Z
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED AND DEEPENED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS
INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
100-106F. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NW OF GCK...EXTENDING TO NEAR HSI.
THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS LIKELY
BASED ABOVE 700 MB WITH PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE ONE INCH. IT APPEARS
STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO LOW RH
VALUES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER ENHANCING THE SFC WIND THREAT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
..DARROW.. 08/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38060179 39080017 40329869 39829794 38499920 37600120
38060179
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