SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142331
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IA...SERN MN AND WRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142331Z - 150030Z
A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
FROM FAR NRN IA THROUGH SERN MN INTO ADJACENT WRN WI.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL IA/SOUTH CENTRAL MN BORDER AREA SINCE 2245Z
IN THE VICINITY OF A VERY WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EXTENT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY THE CLOUD BAND WHICH EARLY THIS EVENING
EXTENDED FROM ERN NEB THROUGH NWRN IA TO SRN/EAST CENTRAL MN. GIVEN
THE AVAILABILITY OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS THE GREATEST THREATS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/
INCREASING SBCINH SUGGEST LIMITED STORM COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION
FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW.
..PETERS.. 08/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43399479 44229397 44669292 44999177 45299105 44389083
43599165 42999326 42829403 43019459 43399479
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