MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1705

ACUS11 KWNS 162317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162316
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-170015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...CT...AND CNTRL MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619...

VALID 162316Z - 170015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619
CONTINUES.

UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING EWD ACROSS PA AT
23Z...AND IS MAXIMIZING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EMANATING OFF OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM 25
WNW OF GFL TO AVP TO HGR. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS RESIDES ALONG THE
FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN PA...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F
AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG /BASED ON OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS GUIDANCE/...WHILE A MORE MOIST BUT COOLER AIR MASS EXISTS
TO THE E OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NY/NRN NJ/CT/MA. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AS STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE FRONT AND TOWARD
THE COOLER DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING TREND IN STORM
INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
FURTHER STABILIZES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION WITH TIME. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...WW 619 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
01Z...WITH ADDITIONAL WATCHES UNLIKELY.

..GARNER.. 08/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39737747 40297741 40317695 40627688 41277518 41217489
41757457 42027476 42177449 42047306 42747294 42717190
42537152 42027148 42007181 41317181 41267290 41027360
40257450 39707574 39737747

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