MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1709

ACUS11 KWNS 172210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172209
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL-SWRN AND WRN AZ TO ALONG THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172209Z - 172345Z

LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SWRN AND WRN AZ TO ALONG THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO THIS WIND THREAT...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 1-2
IN/HR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL AZ...WITH NEW TSTMS HAVING DEVELOPED SINCE 21Z ALONG
THE ATTENDANT SWD AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WHILE TSTMS THAT HAD
DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO WHITE MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING
TO MOVE SSWWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.5-2 INCHES FROM SRN CA INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J PER KG/. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR ARE RATHER WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...DCAPE 1200-1400
J/KG OVER SRN AZ AND 1400-1800 J/KG ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS THAT
MOVE INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT.

..PETERS.. 08/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 31981305 32351429 32711525 33161555 34011552 34961518
35451424 35241370 34361346 34401226 34231189 34121160
33721059 33631057 33211054 32931097 32921140 32221160
31681199 31981305

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