SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182322
MTZ000-190015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182322Z - 190015Z
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
A BAND OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NEAR THE
ID/MT BORDER CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL MT...WHERE
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
/AROUND 40-50 KTS/ TO PRODUCE ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED NEAR/ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH EWD
PROGRESSION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY /SFC DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S/...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CLOUD BASES...THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT
THE POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST WITH ANY PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS.
..ROGERS.. 08/18/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 45830830 45470974 45591132 45811256 45971289 46261285
46801237 47101148 47281052 47420957 47390877 47000835
45830830
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