MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1719

ACUS11 KWNS 190028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190028
UTZ000-NVZ000-190230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NV UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190028Z - 190230Z

A NUMBER OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NV AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW UT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS VERY
HEAVY RAIN. STORM ORGANIZATION AND DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH.

VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NM/UT...COUPLED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA/NV...APPEAR TO BE
THE IMPETUS FOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
NV/UT BORDER AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH AN ARC OF MARGINALLY
ORGANIZED OUTFLOW AIDING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS. MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20KT PER AREA PROFILERS THUS EXPECT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.

ISOLATED PULSE STORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING BETWEEN THE WEAK MCS AND
NORTH OF THE LAS VEGAS AREA WHERE A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING BELOW THE CLOUD BASES AND A
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00 INCH/...AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REGIME
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STORM MERGERS AND REPEAT STORM DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION ON RESIDUAL
COLD POOLS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERALL SEVERE TSTM WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AND
BECOME LESS LIKELY WITH TIME AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CARBIN.. 08/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON 38871230 38291175 37901197 37711227 37421294 37101403
36871459 36851526 37171558 37501555 37901529 38161353
38771273 38871230

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