SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190830
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190830Z - 191030Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODELS SUGGEST LIFT WITH AN UPPER FEATURE
EXTENDS FROM SRN WI WWD INTO SERN MN/NERN IA AS OF 08Z. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE
LIFT IN THIS REGION...AND DESPITE MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS.
EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER NWRN IA DISINTEGRATED AT IT MOVED SWD AWAY
FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INTO A HIGHER CIN ENVIRONMENT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES...HEIGHTS WILL RISE
COINCIDENT WITH WARMING ALOFT. THUS...A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF SRN MN/IA. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED CORES MAY
PERSIST FROM SERN MN INTO NERN IA/FAR WRN WI WHERE IT IS COLDER
ALOFT WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/19/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43059081 42809209 43159373 43659454 44269459 44639398
44519175 44169074 43869058 43469056 43059081
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