SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202226
MIZ000-202330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 202226Z - 202330Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NRN MI THIS
EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
SFC WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR 20 E MBL TO 25 WSW BAX
WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWD. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR /GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE/ AND WILL SPREAD NWD INTO NRN LOWER MI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS SHOWN MORE ORGANIZATION IN RECENT
SCANS. AS STORMS INTERACT WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOCALLY
ENHANCED SHEAR WITH BACKING LL WINDS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT GIVEN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
NRN LOWER MI MAY TEMPER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...BUT
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED EWD.
..ROGERS.. 08/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43258524 43158635 43598665 44878684 45248667 45498624
45618572 45588509 45518455 45388352 44678275 43898319
43418358 43258524
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