SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312026
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-312100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO/WRN AND NRN IA/
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 312026Z - 312100Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN
IA.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS AND MID MO RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND BENEATH 7 C/KM
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-3500 J PER KG/. 19Z OMA SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP REMAINING AROUND
750 MB...THOUGH IT HAD LIFTED/WEAKENED SINCE 12Z. MODIFIED SOUNDING
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL BE
ELIMINATED FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 20Z OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED TEMPERATURES OVER SERN NEB/SWRN IA HAVE REACHED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH STRONGER REFLECTIVITY OVER BURT COUNTY
NEB MAY BE SUGGESTIVE OF THE TREND FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR MORE ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE
NEED FOR A WATCH...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT
FOR HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
..PETERS.. 08/31/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40589807 42119613 43139493 43529391 43529264 43139229
40569454 40019540 39939753 40169798 40589807
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