SWODY1
SPC AC 080549
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS
THE W COAST TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SEWD AND THE ERN LOW/TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT SERN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...WHILE LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
EAST...MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE WILL
AFFECT OK AND VICINITY.
...OK AND ADJACENT N TX/SRN KS...
AS REMNANTS OF HERMINE SHIFT NWD ACROSS TX TOWARD WRN OK DURING THE
DAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.
DESPITE WEAKENING...LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE REMNANT SYSTEM MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL WEAK/BRIEF ROTATION IN A FEW
STRONGER CELLS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS OK AND ADJACENT N TX DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WILL INCLUDE LOW /2%/ TORNADO
PROBABILITY -- WITH ANY THREAT LIKELY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.
...WRN SD/WRN NEB AND VICINITY...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF ERN WY AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NERN WY EWD INTO WRN
SD/WRN NEB AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY NERN CO AND FAR NW
KS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING -- THUS LIKELY LIMITING
APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL...40 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS ATOP LOW-LEVEL
SELYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
THEREFORE...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY EVOLVE -- WITH ASSOCIATED
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...UNTIL A DIURNALLY-STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH THE EVENING RESULTS IN DIMINISHING CONVECTION.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2010
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