SWODY1
SPC AC 181255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS
AND THE LWR MO/MID MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS DEEP LOW MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND E PACIFIC
LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSES E TO OFF THE WA/ORE CST. TWO WEAK UPR
DISTURBANCES...ONE NOW OVER WRN MT AND THE OTHER OVER WY... SHOULD
CONTINUE ESEWD MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY
LATER TODAY/EARLY SUN.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E/SE ACROSS THE GRT
LKS/OH VLY...AND S ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. A WEAK INFLECTION/WAVE
MAY EVOLVE ON THE FRONT OVER ERN KS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR
DISTURBANCE AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
...CNTRL PLNS INTO THE LWR MO/MID MS VLYS...
SCTD AREAS OF ELEVATED STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
N OF COLD FRONT...FROM NEB/SD EWD INTO PARTS OF IL/IND AND LWR
MI/NRN OH. IN THE WAKE OF CLUSTER NOW OVER SRN LK MI/SRN LWR
MI...ACTIVITY LATER TODAY SHOULD RE-FOCUS WWD OVER NEB/SD/IA AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES MOVING ESE FROM MT/WY. SOME OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLNS/MID MS VLY...MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES.
THIS AFTN...FAIRLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO.
SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL IMPINGING UPON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN. WHILE WIND PROFILES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MODEST...DEEP VEERING PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/18/2010
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