SWODY1
SPC AC 251955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NE TX
PANHANDLE...NW OK AND SRN KS...
SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 20Z ISSUANCE.
THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO COVER WW 685.
THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM NRN KS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WHERE COOLER AIR EXISTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE LAST CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE THUNDER-LINE FROM ECNTRL
NEB AND NRN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE POST-FRONTAL RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS.
..BROYLES.. 09/25/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010/
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF OK/KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED. RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON 12Z RAOBS COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE /NAM...NMM...HRRR...RUC/ ALL AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH OF ICT BACK-BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD FOR A
FEW HOURS INTO NORTHWEST OK BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS ZONE
SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA GIVEN THE FOCUSED THREAT AREA AND RATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION.
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