SWODY1
SPC AC 191245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY THIS
PERIOD AS E PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS. AT LWR LVLS...A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE
THE UPR TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE CENTRAL STATES...WRN PART
OF FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS INTO THE OH VLY
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NWD...WHILE ERN PART CONTINUES SE INTO KY...AND
MIDDLE PART REMAINS QSTNRY IN MO.
...LWR MO/MID MS VLYS...
ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS IN IA/MO/IL SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS LLJ ACROSS REGION FURTHER VEERS AND BAND OF STRONGEST
FLOW MOVES E BEYOND AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY/ MOISTURE IN MO.
WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SFC HEATING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLING
FRONT OVER MO THIS AFTN...AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. BUT
WARMER MID LVL TEMPERATURES OVER REGION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...AND
THE ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE TO ENHANCE
ASCENT...SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS ...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...A FEW AFTN PULSE STORMS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.
...PACIFIC NW...
A BELT OF STRONG MID/HIGH LVL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY UPR TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NW AND PORTIONS OF THE NRN RCKYS BY
LATE AFTN. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...IF INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH PW LIKELY WILL BE AOA 1 INCH INVOF
FRONT...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED BY ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SVR PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 5% OVER THE
REGION. SATELLITE AND SFC DATA WILL...HOWEVER ...HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE POCKETS OF GREATER SFC HEATING/CONVERGENCE
THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR STORMS LATE TODAY OVER PARTS OF ERN
WA/ORE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ID.
...S TX/TX GULF CST...
A BELT OF ENHANCED...VERY MOIST LOW LVL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN TX GULF CSTL PLN TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WWD-MOVING
DISTURBANCE ON S SIDE OF UPR RIDGE. LOW LVL SHEAR MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND/OR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/19/2010
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