SWODY1
SPC AC 210547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS
INTO LOWER MI...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FAST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES...WITH A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ONE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING... AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM KS INTO LOWER
MI.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE ZONE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MO/IL AND EVENTUALLY INTO IND/MI DURING THE EVENING.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK AXIS ALSO SHOW
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PRIMARY RISK AREA...WITH THE
HAIL THREAT DECREASING FARTHER EAST.
..HART/GARNER.. 09/21/2010
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