SWODY1
SPC AC 111620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH VALLEY TO TN VALLEY...
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL TRACK ENEWD
ALONG THE OH VALLEY FROM KY TO ERN OH THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THE
WAVE/LOW...AND ALONG THE TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL ACT
ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE FROM KY/TN SOUTH ACROSS MS/AL. TSTM INTENSITY AND
DURATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED GIVEN GENERALLY
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MEAGER...NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OFFSETTING THESE LIMITATIONS WILL BE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOME
OF THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF
WET DOWNBURSTS FROM PULSE AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
AFTER SUNSET.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/ARKLATEX TO CNTRL TX...
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH MAY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR MAY BE A BIT STEEPER THAN POINTS
EAST...MID LEVEL FLOW IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER. THUS...PULSE STORM
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND A FEW COLLAPSING STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
..CARBIN.. 09/11/2010
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