SWODY1
SPC AC 241615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER MT/ID. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS KS/NEB AND ENHANCING LARGE SCALE FORCING.
RAPID LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. IT
APPEARS THAT STRONGER STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL POSE A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SD/IA
WITH A CONTINUED MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
...OH VALLEY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OH/WV/KY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S.
FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER IND MAY LEAD TO A LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS OH/KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...AMBIENT LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY OVER THIS REGION.
ALSO...MOIST-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT UPDRAFTS
WILL BE WEAK WITH VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST OF LESS THAN 5% SEVERE RISK.
...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL
HELP TO CREATE A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. SOME
RISK OF SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST IN THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS...BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/24/2010
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