DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251257
SWODY1
SPC AC 251255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ENEWD OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES SSEWD FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE MID MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING PLAINS WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST IN THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF
STATES...AS WILL A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS TODAY ACROSS NEB/KS.

...ERN NEB TO CENTRAL KS TODAY...
A CLUSTER OF WAA THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM NE NEB INTO N CENTRAL
KS...ON THE NOSE OF A 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ. THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD MIDDAY IN KS AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH 7 C/KM MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHERE MLCAPE COULD
APPROACH 2000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
SOME HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/25/2010

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