SWODY1
SPC AC 101233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EMERGE
INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE
LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL KS WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...PROVIDING A ZONE
OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS/MO/OK. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HELPING TO
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW A PROMINENT CAPPING INVERSION
WILL SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHWEST MO INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN OK. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENT OVER EASTERN KS. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS SHOW CONSIDERABLE VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF TORNADOES AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THROUGH
THE EVENING...STORM CLUSTERS MAY POSE A GREATER THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WEAKENS.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/10/2010
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