SWODY1
SPC AC 210055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MN/WI...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING
INVERSION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...AND LATE DAY MESOSCALE
MODEL RUNS ARE BACKING OFF ON COVERAGE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS THIS
EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
QUITE STRONG /PARTICULARLY NEAR WARM FRONT OVER MN AND WI/. IF A
DISCRETE STORM CAN FORM NEAR THE WARM FRONT...A THREAT FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE...WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 1867 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE SHORT-TERM
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE AREAS.
..HART.. 09/21/2010
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