SWODY1
SPC AC 121237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MI...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL JET MAX TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI...AND
UPPER/LOWER MI. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING OVER UPPER
MI...SPREADING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
...CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE BULK OF
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY BEHIND STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY LATER TODAY OVER
EASTERN NC/SC AS A RESULT OF SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/12/2010
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