SWODY1
SPC AC 261956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND
SC...
A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE OUTLOOK FOR PARTS OF SC AND ERN
GA FOR THE 20Z ISSUANCE. A STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY ONGOING
IN CNTRL GA AND A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN ERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SSEWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN GA...SC AND NC RESULTING IN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD
EXIST IN ERN GA AND SC WHERE A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO BECOME FOCUSED AFTER 06Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP NEAR
THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ROTATE AND HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
..BROYLES.. 09/26/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...GA...SC BY LATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z NMM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. IF THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS MATERIALIZE...A SUPERCELL
THREAT WOULD DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER THIS SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CONTINUE LOW SEVERE PROBS AND
WATCH TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADE LATER TODAY.
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