SWODY1
SPC AC 270055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
THROUGH SRN/ERN GA...THE ERN CAROLINAS TO FAR SERN VA...
...ERN FL PANHANDLE/SRN-ERN GA/CENTRAL-ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM ERN NC SWWD THROUGH SC TO AN INFLECTION POINT/LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL GA. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD
FROM THE GA LOW THROUGH SERN AL TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE GA SURFACE LOW IS APPARENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM GA/SC
BORDER REGION THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TOWARD SRN VA BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
LOW WILL TRACK NEWD INTO GA OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN SOME. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /60-90 METER PER 12 HOURS
AT H5/ SPREADING INTO MS/AL AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS...TRACKING SSEWD THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
A MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES ALONG AND E OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES/
INSTABILITY WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING/DEEP
SSWLY WINDS/SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN
ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN EXIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE RESULTED IN
A NWD AND SWD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ONGOING
STORMS ALONG THE GA/SC BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
ERN CAROLINAS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE TRACKS
TOWARD VA. STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SWRN GA/SERN AL TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PROGRESS EWD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
..PETERS.. 09/27/2010
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