SWODY2
SPC AC 040556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER THE CONUS...WITH TSTM POTENTIAL GENERALLY TIED TO AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. OTHER TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TX COASTAL VICINITY AS WELL.
...NORTHERN WY/NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH...APPRECIABLE LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WHILE AMPLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH...MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN/QUALITY WILL LIMIT BOTH TSTM
COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING BY A STOUT
EASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED PLUME. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH TWO
GENERAL SCENARIOS.
ALONG/BEHIND A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THE FIRST WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT/WY TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODESTLY
MOISTENING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WY TO WESTERN SD...WHERE WEAK
BUOYANCY/COOLING ALOFT AND STRONG WIND PROFILES MAY YIELD SOME
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...AS A WARM
ADVECTION/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME /ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT/ CONTRIBUTES TO TSTM POTENTIAL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT. INITIALLY MODEST MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK.
..GUYER.. 09/04/2010
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