SWODY2
SPC AC 160547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY
REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF
OF THE CONUS...WITH FAST WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEEP CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS.
...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
MODERATE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION...AS LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SLY FLOW AHEAD OF LEE TROUGHING. HOWEVER...RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...HINDERING POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NERN KS/NWRN MO REGION. WITH THIS AREA NEAR THE SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AMPLE SHEAR MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO JUST TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD EXIST.
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING -- INTO
ERN NEB AND IA...AS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SUPPORTS AN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE INCREASE. AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WLYS WITH NWD EXTENT MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS
-- WITH ATTENDANT MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/16/2010
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