SWODY2
SPC AC 241716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NNEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB AS A WELL-FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE NOSE
OF THIS JET...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN CNTRL NEB
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AND MOVE EWD INTO ERN NEB AND NE KS DURING THE
12Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NEB AND NE
KS SATURDAY MORNING ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG ABOVE A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
WHICH WOULD PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. A HAIL
THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATE IN THE MID-MO VALLEY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING MOISTURE RETURN AND THE HAIL THREAT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.
..BROYLES.. 09/24/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment