SWODY2
SPC AC 101650
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY...
A SHARPLY DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY AND OZARKS WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET PARALLEL TO AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE MID-MS VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT
CONCERNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FURTHER WEST ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN
AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND WRN TN AS THE
FRONT MOVES EWD AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
HELP CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR AS STORMS REACH PEAK
INTENSITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT MODERATELY
DESTABILIZE.
..BROYLES.. 09/10/2010
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