SWODY3
SPC AC 010709
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...
HURRICANE EARL APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST
EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS. WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION WEAKENING AS
WELL...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY LOW...IF NOT NEGLIGIBLE.
ACROSS THE WEST...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NORTH MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY OCCUR
WITH A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
BUT DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 09/01/2010
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