SWODY3
SPC AC 090730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
RETREATS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES VICINITY. AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
...OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...SHOULD BE CROSSING THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITIES EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE ALSO
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH...MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GENERALLY BE
COLOCATED WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY NORTHWARD. PENDING THE EXTENSIVENESS OF CLOUD
COVER/EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST
CORRIDORS OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL MODERATE DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR BY
AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OTHERWISE ATTEMPTS TO RETREAT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AS SUCH...A SUBSEQUENT
AFTERNOON REINVIGORATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT/EXTENSIVENESS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE DAY 3 TIME
FRAME PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IT IS CONCEIVABLE
THAT PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS MAY ULTIMATELY WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK.
..GUYER.. 09/09/2010
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