SWODY3
SPC AC 180717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A WRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A DEEPENING LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO
THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH 21/12Z.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW/FRONT...GULF MOISTURE IS NOT PROGGED TO REACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. THUS...ONLY LIMITED AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED -- WITH STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW
OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION. THEREFORE...WHILE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM INVOF THE FRONT...AND THEN
PERSIST/SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY THE INTRODUCTION OF EVEN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..GOSS.. 09/18/2010
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