SWOD48
SPC AC 010854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2010
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
01/00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE IT MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON LABOR DAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION BY THAT TIME WILL
BE RATHER MODEST...AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROBABLY BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE TO
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IF THE MID/UPPER FORCING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME
INHIBITION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FAVORABLY TIMED NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TOO MAY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND DELINEATE A
SEVERE RISK AREA.
..KERR.. 09/01/2010
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