SWOD48
SPC AC 050829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF A
WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EJECTING/OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A SPATIALLY GREATER/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST
SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH.
WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
AROUND DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB.
WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO DAY
6/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ANY CASE...LARGE SCALE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY...AND RESULTANT UNKNOWNS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE
DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/
SEVERE RISK AREAS.
..GUYER.. 09/05/2010
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