SWOD48
SPC AC 060856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AMPLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ASIDE FROM
RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING WESTERN STATES
TROUGH ON DAYS 4/5...AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST. THE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR INTO DAY
4/THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY...BUT A
CONSIDERABLY LIMITED FORECAST PREDICTABILITY EXISTS BY THIS TIME
FRAME /REFERENCE LATEST NHC FORECASTS/.
WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
DAY 4/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB. WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...PERHAPS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN SD/EASTERN NEB TO
IA/SOUTHERN MN. LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL
VARIABILITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SOMEWHAT ANA-FRONTAL
TYPE SCENARIO BY DAY 5...PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE CATEGORICAL SEVERE
RISKS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY AND DAY
5/FRIDAY...DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND
GREATER/ RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 09/06/2010
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