SWOD48
SPC AC 180849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...BRINGING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DAY 4 /TUE. 9-21/. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE DAYS
5-6...AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
ENCOUNTERS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN
CONUS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE INITIAL/WEAKENING TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES DAY 4 APPEARS LIMITED...WITH WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO
REMAIN NW OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION.
MODELS DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EVOLUTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
SURFACE PATTERN AS THE NEXT UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...AND THUS DEGREE AND LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS UNCLEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THESE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES
AS WELL AS WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO BE LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL...NO OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 09/18/2010
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