SWOD48
SPC AC 190837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE DAY 4 /WED.
9-22/...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CONUS.
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD DRAW AT LEAST
SOME MOISTURE NWD...LIKELY RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT --
THOUGH LIKELY TO BE LIMITED BY AN OVERALL LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/CAPE. QUESTIONS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF A DAY 4 AREA.
THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 5 /THU. 9-23/....BUT AGAIN...SOMEWHAT
LIMITED INSTABILITY HINTED AT BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOULD TEND
TO DAMPEN OVERALL THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 6 /FRI.
9-24/...WITH THE INCREASING MODEL DIVERGENCE PRECLUDING ANY
LONGER-RANGE GRASP OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/19/2010
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