SWOD48
SPC AC 220831
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH SWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT D4 WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
IT WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT
CONTINUES SWD INTO MO ON SUN D5...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM LA INTO MS AND AL.
HOWEVER...LITTLE SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO MON D6 AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY...WITH INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM AL NWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL
SPREAD EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WED D8.
..JEWELL.. 09/22/2010
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